Growth likely to rebound if global conflict eases in 3-6 months: ICICI Pru official

Business 08 Jun, 2026

Growth likely to rebound if global conflict eases in 3-6 months: ICICI Pru official

Business To Business, New Delhi, 8^th June, 2026: Manish Banthia has said that India's economic growth could regain momentum if ongoing geopolitical conflicts ease within the next three to six months.
According to Banthia, the underlying structure of the Indian economy remains sound, but the trajectory of growth will depend significantly on how long current international conflicts continue.
He suggested that if household and corporate balance sheets remain healthy during this period of uncertainty, economic activity could strengthen once geopolitical pressures subside.
Key Points

The duration of global conflicts is a critical variable for economic growth.
Protecting the financial health of households and businesses is essential to sustaining demand and investment.
A reduction in geopolitical tensions could improve business confidence, trade flows, and investment activity.
India's economic fundamentals, in his view, remain supportive of a recovery in growth momentum.

Ongoing conflicts can affect economies through:

Higher energy and commodity prices.
Increased transportation and logistics costs.
Greater uncertainty for investors and businesses.
Potential disruptions to global trade and supply chains.

For India, which imports a large share of its energy needs, prolonged geopolitical tensions can add inflationary pressure and affect consumption and investment decisions.
Banthia's comments come at a time when markets are closely monitoring conflicts in West Asia and their potential impact on oil prices, inflation, and global economic growth. Asset managers and economists generally view the persistence or resolution of such conflicts as an important factor influencing economic prospects over the coming quarters.
Banthia believes India's economy remains fundamentally well-positioned and that growth could accelerate again if geopolitical tensions ease within the next three to six months, provided households and businesses maintain strong financial balance sheets during the period of uncertainty.

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Growth likely to rebound if global conflict eases in 3-6 months: ICICI Pru official

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Growth likely to rebound if global conflict eases in 3-6 months: ICICI Pru official

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